So I looked at the polls prior to the Tasmanian election and I predicted that Labor had a reasonable chance of forming minority government. The pollsters had Liberal winning 4 more seats than Labor, however either one would need to form a coalition to achieve power. The Greens, Jacqui Lambie Network and most of the independents have a closer relationship to Labor so I genuinely believed they had a chance of forming government.
The betting odds however had Labor at $9. So all those prior nights staring at flashing poker machines kicked in and I placed a $100 bet on Labor to win. Even if I believed Liberal was more likely, I thought that Labor still had at least a 40% chance of achieving government.
However, I should have remembered Rebecca White was born to be a loser and will always be a loser. Before many of the seats had even been called, White had conceded the election and temporarily resigned from the leadership. They actually did better than what the polls predicted and even now still have a chance to form a minority government. Many commentators including the sleazy Jacqui Lambie was just as confused as I was and queried why Labor had so quickly given up on achieving a minority government.
There are three reasons why they did this. The first and more obvious is just to screw me out of my $1000 winnings. The second purpose for doing so is that Rebecca White’s very nature is one of a loser that prefers being in the comfortable role of opposition instead of actually winning. And the third reason is that they are handing Liberal the rope to hang themselves through minority government infighting.
In the 1996 Tasmanian election, both Labor and Liberal had the opportunity to form minority government consider they aligned with the Greens. Labor immediately refused and enabled the Liberals to do so. The Liberals took the opportunity to form minority government and it didn’t work out well. The infighting was so frustrating to the public that the Liberal Party was punished in the next two elections, causing Labor to form majority government on both occasions.
A similar matter occurred in 2010 when Labor formed a minority government with the Greens. They may have won the initial term, but would lose the following 4 state elections. By enabling your opponent to align with the devil, you are gifting them a chaotic minority government that will lose them future elections. I don’t know if there is term for this type of tactic, all I could think was “give your opponent an inch so you can take a mile.”
When it comes to minority governments in Tasmania, it’s essentially a competition between who will concede first. Allegedly, both leaders were seen racing one another through Hobart towards the governor’s house. Once they arrived they began fighting as they clambered up the staircase towards the entrance. The obese Jeremy Rockliff was quickly exhausted and Rebecca White managed to beat him inside. She then yelled to the governor that Labor had conceded, meaning that Rockliff and the Liberal Party would have to govern as a minority.
I was aware that minority governments are usually full of issues, however I hadn’t understood the severity in which the major parties avoid such governing. In all honestly, I would prefer having $1000 instead of learning this lesson.
